State of Logistics™
GAIN Group (Pty) Ltd is proud to present the State of Logistics™ 2026 Report, sponsored by Absa Bank and the Western Cape Government Mobility Department.
The State of Logistics™ 2026 for South Africa provides an evidence-based assessment of South Africa’s national logistics costs and the key factors driving these costs. These outputs are largely provided by the Logistics Cost Model for South Africa, developed by GAIN Group, based on actual data for 2003-2024, an estimate for 2025 (indicated as ‘2025 E’), and a forecast for 2026 (indicated as ‘2026 F’). The Freight Demand Model™ (FDM™) for South Africa, developed by GAIN Group, is also used for complementary freight demand information. Unless otherwise stated, all annual figures refer to calendar years.
The report examines expenditure on transport, warehousing, inventory carrying, and management and administration. The analysis considers logistics expenditure trends in their historical and international context, recognising that South Africa’s geography, freight intensity and economic structure create significant transport requirements, while unreliable infrastructure and inefficient operations add costs that could potentially be avoided.
Particular attention is given to road freight transport (which is currently the dominant freight mode, including changes in fuel, labour, vehicle ownership and other operating costs, as well as freight rates relative to inflation and diesel prices. Complementary freight demand analysis examines the distribution of freight across economic sectors, the respective roles of road and rail, and the consequences of transporting rail-friendly freight by road. Analysis also considers how logistics performance failures affect supply chains, export opportunities and broader economic competitiveness.
The report quantifies the continuing economic consequences of freight rail underperformance, comprising transport inefficiencies and unachieved bulk mineral exports; the latter represents foregone economic activity rather than direct logistics expenditure. Against this backdrop, the report assesses the recovery of rail volumes and ongoing structural reforms, emphasising that their success must ultimately be measured through more reliable services and lower avoidable logistics costs.
A dedicated Western Cape section considers provincial logistics costs and the factors shaping regional freight performance. The report concludes by identifying three complementary priorities for cost reduction: selecting the most appropriate transport mode; the effective use of transport capacity; and increasing operational efficiency. Together, these findings provide an evidence base for decisions by government and industry to strengthen South Africa’s freight-system efficiency, resilience and competitiveness.