Transport & Logistics

Approach

In Trade and Logistics, GAIN Group’s quantitative models are data-rich and purpose-built to answer specific research questions. These models are updated annually and continuously refined. The competitive edge of our models is their depth, accuracy and continuous updates – aspects which require dedicated resources and therefore very few competitors are willing to invest in developing comparable products. Blending the statistical results with knowledge of the underlying trends and drivers (whether societal, political or economic) provides a substantive interpretation that not only tells the customer what the current reality is, but allows them to understand how the ideal future can be influenced.

Customers

Customers include Southern African governments and their agencies and other international entities (government or otherwise) that require insight regarding a specific freight industry, freight transport mode or the trade and logistics characteristics of a geographic region in Sub-Sahara Africa. Long-term relationships with Transnet SOC (Ltd), the CSIR and the Department of Transport for South Africa gives us a keen understanding of the South African context while relations with the World Bank and The Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands give us insight to Southern Africa’s role in the global context.

Market Analysis

Market Analysis of the South African Transport and Logistics sector

Extensive market consultation and desktop research was combined to identify market opportunities for Dutch companies in the transport and logistics sector. The project was commissioned by The Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands with a specific focus to enable Dutch companies to leverage off opportunities in the sector. The report was received with much excitement at an industry forum in Rotterdam during May of 2014.

Agricultural dry bulk study

A detailed analysis of the status-quo and forecast of the agricultural dry bulk industry (specifically maize and wheat) was required as an input to a broader feasibility study regarding the grain silos at the Port of East London. The project required detailed analysis from our models – including freight flow and cost forecasts on a disaggregate origin-destination level. In addition, extensive market consultation was conducted to determine the appetite for potential Public Private Partnerships.


Strategic assessments

SACU Trade and Transport facilitation assessment

The Trade and Transport Facilitation Assessment (TTFA) conducted for the South African Customs Union (SACU) under the auspices of the World Bank, identified opportunities to improve the performance of exports in the SACU region. A particular emphasis was placed on improving the cross-border trade facilitation, transport, and logistics environment to support the development of competitive regional value chains.


Feasibility studies

Agricultural dry bulk study

A detailed analysis of the status-quo and forecast of the agricultural dry bulk industry (specifically maize and wheat) was required as an input to a broader feasibility study regarding the grain silos at the Port of East London. The project required detailed analysis from our models – including freight flow and cost forecasts on a disaggregate origin-destination level. In addition, extensive market consultation was conducted to determine the appetite for potential Public Private Partnerships.


Freight flow and forecasting

Freight Demand Model

The Freight Demand Model was developed in 2006 (and updated annually since then). It provides a much wider measure of freight flows between all magisterial districts in South Africa, for all commodities on all modes. It also forecasts these flows 30 years into the future with 5 year intervals and provide a likely, high and low growth scenario. It utilises a disaggregated social accounting matrix framework based on magisterial district supply and demand, compared with detailed industry research and correlated with known freight flows. The model is a demand side model, based on the supply and demand of commodity and products. A technical description can be found in Chapter 8 of the Dissertation: “The creation and application of a freight flow model for South Africa”, by Havenga, J.H., 2007.

The outputs of this model are currently used for long-term planning within Transnet Group Planning.

National Freight Flow Model

The National Freight Flow Model in its current form was developed in 2004 and populated with data from 1993 to 2004 (and updated with 2005 - 2014 data). It measures road and rail freight flows in South Africa with resultant market share calculations. It distributes these flows over four network typologies namely primary, metropolitan and rural and provides answers for all sub components of these typologies (i.e. all cities, provinces, corridors and export lines). The model is a supply side model, based on vehicle movements. A technical description of the methodology is covered in an article that was published in the South African Institute of Civil Engineering’s academic journal April 2012 edition.

Container demand forecasting model

A 30-year forecast model for the national movement of standard shipping containers was developed. The model distinguishes between five flow typologies (import/export of full containers, domestic intermodal containers, full and empty transshipment, marine coastal containers and empty container repositioning) and models each separately. Creating this model required extensive market consultation to determine the appropriate demand and supply drivers and to obtain data for the model parameters.

The outputs of this model are currently used for long-term planning within Transnet Group Planning.

Regional Freight Flow Model

In its 4th iteration, the Regional Freight Demand Model represents import, export, intra-regional and domestic freight flow within 52 regions of 17 Sub-Saharan African countries for 66 commodities. Updated and refined annually through rigourous market research, economic modelling and information regarding infrastructure development plans, the Regional Freight Demand Model forecasts freight flow trends in the medium and long term.

The outputs of this model are currently used for long-term planning within Transnet Group Planning.


Logistics costs

Logistics Costs Model

The Logistics Costs Model measures all costs on all modes together with ancillary logistics expenditures such as warehousing, management and administration and inventory carrying costs. These costs are available on a disaggregate basis, per district and commodity, and are used to measure the impact of modal balance changes. The model is both bottom-up (based on economic demand) and top-down (based on national accounts). The methodology has been published in the South African Journal of Economics, December 2010 and selected results have featured in the annual State of Logistics™ survey for South Africa published by the CSIR and the Logistics Barometer published by Stellenbosch University.


insight drives growth